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Swine flu: Twitter's power to misinform

Sat, 04/25/2009 - 4:56pm

 

Who knew that swine flu could also infect Twitter? Yet this is what appears to have happened in the last 24 hours, with thousands of Twitter users turning to their favorite service to query each other about this nascent and potentially lethal threat as well as to share news and latest developments from Mexico, Texas, Kansas and New York (you can check most recent Twitter updates on the subject by searching for "swine flu" and "#swineflu"). And despite all the recent Twitter-enthusiasm about this platform's unique power to alert millions of people in decentralized and previously unavailable ways, there are quite a few reasons to be concerned about Twitter's role in facilitating an unnecessary global panic about swine flu.


First of all, I should point out from the very outset that anyone trying to make sense of how Twitter's "global brain" has reacted to the prospect of the swine flu pandemic is likely to get disappointed. The "swine flu" meme has so far that misinformed and panicking people armed with a platform to broadcast their fears are likely to produce only more fear, misinformation and panic.

 

Thus, Unlike basic internet search -- which has been already been nicely used by Google to track emerging flu epidemics -- Twitter seems to have introduced too much noise into the process: as opposed to search requests which are generally motivated only by a desire to learn more about a given subject, too many Twitter conversations about swine flu seem to be motivated by desires to fit in, do what one's friends do (i.e. tweet about it) or simply gain more popularity.

 

In situations like this, there is some pathological about people wanting to post yet another status update containing the coveted most-searched words – only for the sake of gaining more people to follow them. And yet the bottom line is that tracking the frequency of Twitter mentions of swine flu as a means of predicting anything thus becomes useless (however, there are plenty of other non-Twitter ways to track the epidemic and Mashable does a good job of summing them all up).


That aside, the "swine flu" Twitter-scare has once again proved the importance of context -- and how badly most Twitter conversations are hurt by the lack of it. The problem with Twitter is that there is very little context you can fit into 140 characters, even less so if all you are doing is watching a stream of messages that mention "swine flu." Now, the lack of context is probably not a problem in 99 percent of discussions happening on Twitter -- or, at least, it's not a problem with devastating global consequences.

 

However, in the context of a global pandemic -- where media networks are doing their best to spice up an already serious threat -- having millions of people wrap up all their fears into 140 characters and blurt them out in the public might have some dangerous consequences, networked panic being one of them. If you think that my concerns about context are overblown, here are just a few status updates from random Twitter users that would barely make you calmer (or more informed) about what's going on:


I'm concerned about the swine flu outbreak in us and mexico could it be germ warfare? (link)


In the pandemic Spanish Flu of 1918-19, my Grandfather said bodies were piled like wood in our local town....SWINE FLU = DANGER (link)


Good grief this swine flu thing is getting serious. 8/9 specimens tested were prelim positive in NYC. so that's Tx, Mexico and now Nyc. (link)


Short Ribs! How long before the Swine Flu hysteria crashes the pork market? 2 hours? 3? (link)


be careful of the swine flu!!!! (may lead to global epidemic) Outbreak in Mexico. 62 deaths so far!! Don't eat pork from Mexico!! (link)


Swine flu? Wow. All that pork infecting people....beef and chicken have always been meats of choice (link)


SIMPLE CURE FOR THE NEW BHS (BIRD/HUMAN/SWINE FLU) AS REPORTED ON TV LAST NIGHT IS THE DRUG TAMIFLU....ALREADY A PRESCRIPTION ON THE MARKET (link)


Be careful...Swine Flu is not only in Mexico now. 8 cases in the States. Pig = Don't eat (link)


If my reading list on Twitter was only restricted to the individuals who had produced the posts above, by now I would be extremely scared and probably feeling a great urge to post a scary Twitter update myself. In moments like this, one is tempted to lament the death of broadcasting, for it seems that the information from expert sources -- government, doctors, and the like – should probably be prioritized over everything else and have a higher chance of being seen that the information from the rest of one's Twitter-feed, full of speculation, misinformation, and gossip.


Here is a tough question to communication experts out there: how do we reach the digital natives out there, especially those who are only accessible via Facebook and Twitter feeds? The problem is that while thousands of concerned and misinformed individuals took to Twitter to ventilate their fears, government and its agencies were still painfully missing from the social media space; the Twitter of account of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was posting updates once in a few hours -- and that was probably the only really trustworthy source people could turn to online. 

 

But what about the rest of the US government or international institutions like WHO? In an ideal world, they would have established ownership of most online conversations from the very beginning, posting updates as often as they can. Instead, they are now faced with the prospect of thousands of really fearful citizens, all armed with their own mini-platforms to broadcast their fears -- which may cost it dearly in the long term.


The question of whether we need to somehow alter our global information flows during global pandemics is not a trivial one. A recent New York Times piece highlighted how a growing number of corporations like Starbucks, Dell, and Whole Foods are turning to Twitter to monitor and partially shape conversation about particular brands or products. What the piece failed to mention was that conversations about more serious topics (like pandemics- and their tragic consequences) could be shaped as well.


I think it's only a matter of time before that the next generation of cyber-terrorists -- those who are smart about social media, are familiar with modern information flows, and are knowledgeable about human networks -- take advantage of the escalating fears over the next epidemic and pollute the networked public sphere with scares that would essentially paralyze the global economy. Often, such tactics would bring much more destruction than the much-feared cyberwar and attacks on physical -- rather than human -- networks.

 

Let's just do some thinking about what's possible here. One of the least discussed elements in the cyber-attacks that struck Estonia in 2007 was psychological operations. There was, for example, a whole series of text messages aimed specifically at Estonia's vast Russian-speaking populations urging them to drive their cars at 5km/h at a specific time of they day; quite predictably, this led to a hold-up in traffic (you can watch a TV report in Estonian about this here). Thus, a buy-in from the most conspiracy-driven 1% of the population may be enough to stall traffic in the entire city. We could easily expect even more devastating consequences from the public scares generated by global pandemics. This is the reason why the current wave of Twitter-induced speculation -- and manipulation -- are worth paying attention to...

 

photo by The Pug Father/Flickr


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Excellent!

Twitter is like a breath of fresh air on the Social Media scene. I have been on it for just a few weeks now and I have met several interesting people. It is a platform to network with people you would like to meet in real life.

http://Spryka.com

Pulse of the World

Twitter is only a natural extension of a typical neighborhood. Without authoritative information, residents will pass on second hand information amongst themselves. It would be wise not to place too much credibility in any particular post, as you would a shouted rumor on the street.

However, as a Twitterer myself, it's a great place to get a feel for the pulse of the web, and by extension the whole world. As Twitter grows in popularity and reach, one gets a general impression of what the people of the world are thinking and feeling. But it would not be the place to gather accurate news. I had thought that would have been obvious.

Twitter can be useful in alerting one to possible news, and the sensible thing to do would be to do one's own search at reputable news agencies. More and more I am finding out about breaking news in this way. And I think that's a great thing.

rebuttal to the ignorance

My husband, @kragen, spent the better part of last night trying to get people to stop spreading false rumors and he made plenty of people angry in the process. He eventually wrote up a piece and put it on his website. It's about how false rumors can cost lives. I hope people stop to think about what they tweet, but I fear that tweeting without thinking will win out.

I sincerely hope that the swine flu peters out and doesn't become the international pandemic that we all fear it could become.

great essay on rumors and lives

Blmurch, thanks for the pointer to the great essay. I also linked to it my "assorted links" for the day post.

Oh the irony

It's an interesting article but it's also a little amusing the way it takes Twitter to task for flooding us with empty chatter about the swine flu, and yet this article adds to that chatter without itself containing any real information about the swine flu, making the distinction between this article and the same sorts of observations posted on Twitter, seem a little bit arbitrary.

let's leave it to the experts

well, I'm an expert on internet communications and am not an expert on swine flu, so I think I'd rather not convey any real information about such a sensitive subject - perhaps, a very healthy attitude that some Twitter users may want to adopt :-)

twitter isn't the

twitter isn't the problem.

You know what the problem is and you nail it right here:

"The problem is that while thousands of concerned and misinformed individuals took to Twitter to ventilate their fears, government and its agencies were still painfully missing from the social media space; the Twitter of account of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was posting updates once in a few hours – and that was probably the only really trustworthy source people could turn to online."

The world is changing and dinosaur entities like government and media either refuse to change with it (e.g. media) or can't keep up (e.g. government).

If the WHO and the CDC had twitter accounts that could keep up with everyone else, they would be the primary sources and people would have GLADLY Re-Tweeted them. It was the FAILURE of the CDC and the WHO to do something as simple as disseminate information via a twitter account that caused problems. Plain and simple. Join the 21st century. Don't bitch about it. Your average 15 year old can do this, so entities with vast resources should be able to be trained to do so. There are tools like twitterfeed that make this mind-numbingly easy:

http://twitterfeed.com/

That is all.

Mutated Swine Flu - a pandemic that isn't

Thank you for your blog! This is something that most are not aware of! Most people forgot about the 1976 Swine Flu pandemic that NEVER was.

A Jane Burgermeister will be filing criminal charges against Dr M Chan and WHO. She insisted there was no reason to say that the Swine Flu is a pandemic. WHO's death figures did not match those of CDC's.

I have part of her email to Dr. Margaret Chan if anyone is interested. Or else you can read it online soon (will be posted into the Bloggersbase community for all to read; my nickname there is qutequte).

Disagreeing with you....

While I think you have a very valid point about twitter, the panic-mongering rumor mill, I question why the CDC should possibly update it's twitter feed more often than it does -- every few hours when there is actually something to say/report/some actual news. It is the CDC's job to provide actual, verified information about public health threats, not to feed the hype mill, or, for that matter, to dispel every idiot's assertions out there. I follow the feed from the CDC precisely BECAUSE it provides me with high signal to noise ratio of actual updates.

Also, to read about the response to #influenza porcina in Spanish from Mexicans (often pretty funny and largely more informative), look for hashtag #influenza. After all, that is where the flu originated.

Katrin

Effect?

Any evidence of the effects rumor/fear-mongering are having? I think you under-sell people's ability to parse information sources - even digital natives know not to trust random tweets (at least this digital native does...).

Also, when asking "how do we reach the digital natives out there, especially those who are only accessible via Facebook and Twitter feeds?," isn't it useful to know if there really are people who are only accessible via Facebook and Twitter? And even so, those services do not exist in a vacuum - CNN, NYT, CDC, etc. are all just a link a way. (Need data for this, though.)

Kevin

Tired of people bashing twitter users

I am so tired of bloggers trying to get attention with twitter bashing.

What is the difference from any blogging site misinformation or "fox"news spin such as Global warming is a myth, than twitter...NOTHING.. some people in bloggosphere,bias news channels, and twitter all have dumb people and intelligent people and to say only a certian area of media or social media contains a higher concentrated number of dumb misinformed people is bias in itself.

There is nothing confusing about twitter or hard to understand about twitter speech if you have half a brain. I know many well informed, highly intelligent twitterers with good sources and I know some idiots who spew retard garbage. Of the 1,000 followers I have only about 3 percent of them I would considered uneducated. So maybe it is just the followers I attract or your bias and spent a lot of time setting up blogs and losing your followers intrest to something that gives you information faster and with less fluff so you lash out at your competitive social media platform such as Twitter ?? gee I wonder.

Some people listen to Fox news and believe Global warming is a myth, some listen to the small amount of idiots on twitter and some believe your crap too.

Got a problem complain to me on my Twitter handle autumn_meadows

Wild extrapolation and suggestion of more Government control

You are wildly extrapolating from some valid concerns about Twitter and creating your own little fear pandemic. Twitter is extremely popular, and there are real concerns about its influence in times like these, but one must remember that Twitter accounts for a very small part of the communication on the Internet. Email, instant messaging, blogging, website updates, etc all account for 99.9% of the communication on the Internet.

What you are suggesting --some vast Governmental control so that it may 'break in' to our online communications mechanisms in times of trouble-- is unnecessary and borderline Orwellian.

I think you underestimate the reliance on traditional media by the vast majority of the population and you overestimate Twitter's ability to cause mass fear in the population.

"changing" isn't always the answer..

"If the WHO and the CDC had twitter accounts that could keep up with everyone else, they would be the primary sources and people would have GLADLY Re-Tweeted them. It was the FAILURE of the CDC and the WHO to do something as simple as disseminate information via a twitter account that caused problems. Plain and simple. Join the 21st century. Don't bitch about it. Your average 15 year old can do this, so entities with vast resources should be able to be trained to do so. There are tools like twitterfeed that make this mind-numbingly easy..."

But the problem is that government organizations who need to put out verified, useful information often cannot and should not "tweet" and update every few minutes like the average 15 year old. The problem is our pathological need to be exposed to information -- any information -- at all costs at all times of the day, whether it is accurate and useful or not. Information takes time to process and reflect on... I don't value knee-jerk reactions and they only feed more panic and hysteria. How many people will hear the initial message vs. a recanting after the findings are actually thought through?

kilroy: "twitter isn't the

kilroy: "twitter isn't the problem."

You're blaming the CDC for not having the appropriate verbal diarrhoea for twitter, instead of just holding up your hands and accepting that a great deal of twitter is just inane ill-informed 'look at me' comments. Apparently all blame must instead be projected onto institutions and authority figures. Pathetic childishness.

It's not rocket science - any forum in which millions of people get to blurt inanities (and are encouraged to by the culture of the place) is going to result in lots of drivel being posted.

Unsurprised your message ended with spamming your website URL - a classic twitterer.

dinosaurs: try to be relevant. please.

Dear Dinosaurs,

Take note: twitter isn't going away. Please try to be relevant. Please.

Twitter Panic

I agree as a journalism academic and former mainstream reporter with Australia's national broadcaster (ABC), that there are elements of 'the mob' about Twitter that highlight the value of editorial filters.

However, this is a vibrant, increasingly popular information medium and, rather than decrying its shortfalls (as many journalists & academics did before succumbing in multitudes), it would be better, as you suggest, for agencies like WHO and government bodies to get on board.

Similarly, media outlets and professional journalists are now seriously invading the space and they provide reliable 'filtered' Tweets to burgeoning lists of followers.

In the same way that the traditional media was forced to embrace online media and interactivity, ultimately proving that trusted media 'brands' carry credibility online in times of crisis, such 'professional' Twitter accounts will likely eventually fulfil a similar role, bringing balance to the white noise and misinformation.

On a positive note: I found your post via a Tweet from a 'Joe Public' Twitterer!

Julie Posetti
Journalism Lecturer,
University of Canberra
Australia

the pot calling the kettle black

"I think it's only a matter of time before cyber-terrorists would essentially paralyze the global economy."

That looks to me a bold statement directed to generate panic and sensationalism. You are just doing what you blame people are doing using twitter.

Twitter is just a tool. If you have to blame something blame the people and not the tool. With or without twitter idiots will still be idiots.

The world of communication is already changed and there is nothing you can do about it (but you already know it since you are taking advantage of it).

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one that's most adaptable to change. --darwin

Another side to the story

There is another interpretation, of course - that twitter is a kind of global immune system: http://tinyurl.com/d24tqy

Reputable Twitter Feed from San Diego County government

The County of San Diego, where four U.S. swine flu cases have been identified, has a frequently updated Twitter feed: @SanDiegoCounty.

Thanks for gathering some of

Thanks for gathering some of the misinformed tweets about swine flu; I had not yet seen any quite so misinformed as these. I posted a quote from this article in my forum post on HASTAC about the use of blogging and Twitter in academia here.

Dear Twitosaurs

"Take note: twitter isn't going away. Please try to be relevant. Please."

Yes, Kilroy. Your echo chamber is relevant. More's the pity.

Long before Twitter, the mob in history always had its surges, its contractions. A mob brain is like a blob of mercury. Wiggling, jiggling. Fed by its own momentum. In a mob, you're a shiny globule of nothing.

The culture of the Tweet is a mob phenomenon. That's OK if you just tell yourselves all day long what you're eating. That's a pity if tomorrow you all become convinced, for instance, to swallow Draino as a buffer against a pandemic. But mobs do stuff like that. Mobs interpret the group smell as "wisdom." Mobs also lynch.

Yes, you're relevant. Mostly, though, your relevance isn't what you had in mind when you used the word. It's helpful to better culture when its most herd-minded conformists stay out in the open, broadcasting frenetically to themselves. Congratulations: you're the new TV. And it's so nice to turn you off.

I Agree 100% About Twitter

I love your article and I agree with you 100% about the "Twitter Effect". This is what I wrote on my blog:

"I believe the swine flu mania has the potential to be much greater than manias of the past. Right now, the majority of biotech stocks are trading at multi-month highs, have plenty of momentum, and it wouldn’t surprise me if short sellers have increased their positions over the past few weeks that could create the mother-of-all-short-squeezes."

taken from:

http://collegestock.com/blog/the-swine-flu-stocks-contaminating-wall-street/

Silly Twitter

CLEARLY the swine flu is the viral zombie infection many of us have been expecting.

level 4 in one week we might be in trouble.

I just ordered cleanose nasal screens and they are already limiting supplies due to high demand. Mask companies are running out of manufacturing materials. Look out world we might be in trouble.

Speaking of misinformation

The CDC does in fact have a twitter feed - http://twitter.com/CDCemergency as does FEMA - http://twitter.com/femainfocus and many other agencies responsible for disseminating reliable information. However, you have to choose to follow them. Context on Twitter comes from knowing who you're following - who is making a joke, who has reliable information, who's an idiot, who is really preparing for a zombie apocalypse, etc. Using hash tags for searching won't get you anywhere unless you know every person who's contributing to the conversation - would you walk down the street and take advice from every stranger you passed? It's all about judgment - online just like in the real world.

Pull the other one...

I am stunned and shocked that this author appears to think that the authorities and big media companies are perfectly informed and unbiased!

All that twitter demonstrates is that you should consider the source (its reliability etc.) when evaluating any information.

You'd be an idiot to take what the unwashed masses on twitter think at face value. But you'd be equally foolish not to treat what the big news corps and governments say with a pinch of salt.

All that the popularity of swine flu on twitter can demonstrate is the extent to which it has captured the popular imagination.

Sadly, this author is guilty of exactly the sensationalism and misinformation he criticises.

It's actually swine flew

I saw this on Twitter so it must be true.
http://www.blog-stalk.com/showpost.php?ID=323

Twit-Storms & Health Intelligence

I've posted this along with the Google flu trends link and the mashable link to the Earth Intelligence Network Twitter feed.

There you will also find a link to a wiki that I found from Craig Newmark on the swine flu, as well as the Vertect twitter link.

Jason Liszkiewicz
Executive Director, Earth Intelligence Network 501(c)3
Public Intelligence in the Public Interest
www.earth-intelligence.net
Cyber Scout Hyper Link-Table
Free Collective Intelligence Book
http://re-configure.org
http://smart-city.re-configure.org

Randall Munroe offered his

Randall Munroe offered his own satirization(?) of twitter and swine flu.

Seems like a rush to judgment to me ...

I'm with kdonovan11, autumn_meadows, julie posetti and others who are pointing out that presence misinformation and overreaction on Twitter is only part of the story. kdonovan11's point about evidence of impact is an excellent one. It'll be interesting to compare the information spreading about this swine flu potential-pandemic with past flu-related scares. It wouldn't surprise me if more people are getting more correct information more quickly now ... and social media has a lot to do with it. Most Twitterers I run into understand that not everything they see there is true, and the Twitterverse has many people like @kragen (bimurch's husband) who put a lot of work into providing accurate information.

What the [NYTimes] piece failed to mention was that conversations about more serious topics (like pandemics- and their tragic consequences) could be shaped as well.

True enough, and I think this is a very important point. Did the CDC, WHO, AMA, and the Department of HHS (etc.) have a plan to help shape and inform opinion via Twitter, Facebook, MySpace and other social media? If not, why not -- and are they preparing for next time?

jon, aka @jdp23 on Twitter

alrighty, lots of good

alrighty, lots of good points, but when you make countless typo's and spelling errors your credibility drops tons. Also, this is a damn joke....the media has once again played the 'OMFG!!!" card and is blowing this completely proportion....jesus, people....wake up and smell the concrete....you have a better chance of hitting the lottery than you do of dying from this....follow my example and ignore it....thank you :D

Swine Flu

I twitter..but I don't pay attention to most of the swine flu info on twitter other that the ones I get from the CDC which I follow.

I think twitter has create

I think twitter has create chaos among netizens for swine flue. It must be broadcasted correctly.

Machoman

Sample Resumes

Reliable info and map

Yeah, the only reliable info I have found is stuff that comes from the Center for Disease Control. A friend sent me this link to a site that pulls that info and puts it into an animated map:
http://www.swine-flu-map-animation.com/
So far only 141 confirmed cases in the U.S. It is a problem, but so many people are freaking out about it. It seems kind of ridiculous to call it a "pandemic" at this point.

"unnecessary global panic about swine flu"

The entire premise of your essay is dead wrong.

I would refer you to Quarantelli's work in disaster sociology (and many others, for that matter) on the subject of the sociology of panic.

In your essay you have unfortunately (yet again, as with many others during the blog and media output on the topic of "swine flu") helped perpetuate the classic myth of panic being associated with disasters.

Please, read the literature- the academic, peer-reviewed literature- on the reality of social response behaviors during crises and disasters before encouraging media attention about the potential for a "global panic".

To ignore the literature severely affects your credibility and the credibility of the institution, Foreign Policy, you belong to.

Swine flu "infecting" social medias too!

This is what I feel entitled to state now. Swine FLu may well be infecting social medias...among which twitter is the first victim. Come read our comprehensive article on that phenomenon here on Knowledge beyond words
You can also digg it

Your opinion is more than welcome!

epidemic

I think this is turning into a colossal epidemic.

replica Rolex

Mass Panic

This swine flu stuff is some of the stupidest to ever hit the country. How many people have died from it? 80? Big deal. It's too bad for the families of those people, but I'm more afraid of getting hit by a car crossing the street than dying of that.

I actually wrote a post on my blog making fun of the swine flu and twitter. If anyone wants to check it out, the link is www.futuretwits.blogspot.com

Leave a comment if you'd like, and lets get a discussion going.